It won't be that long. I'm figuring trouble in the Trump paradise will start shortly after they either fail to pass a tax cut or pass a tax cut that blows up the middle class.
I'm inclined to the former, Trump has TRANSPARENTLY asked for a tax cut that falls 100% on the middle and lower economic classes to pay for a cut on the top 1%.
Most of your Republican congress critters are used to playing games that include plenty of made up numbers and lies from the White House, not nakedly stating "FUCK THE MIDDLE CLASS, THE RICH NEED MORE MONEY". Which is what Trump has done.
So the tax cut will probably fail to pass, IMHO. If it does pass, they're screwed, if it doesn't pass, they're screwed.
If it does pass, there won't be any Republicans going to Congress from high cost housing states for a while.
If it doesn't, then the stock market will drop like a brick, as govt gifts are a major factor in keeping it so high for so long.
If it does pass, then the stock market will drop more slowly, because they'll have cut 401K contributions, and those are a big thing to the market now. But it'll still drop.
And the market is a major thing in consumer confidence - which is weird because they'd appear to have nothing to do with each other, but that's how people are.
And when the consumer confidence drops, we're in trouble really quickly, because SO DAMN MUCH of the economy is just retail now. On top of that, you've got so many people retiring with smaller incomes now. No money for toys.
I think we're screwed either way. Obama was good at balancing acts, Trump doesn't care that there is a balancing act going on.